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Population growth rate

By OECD on Apr 13, 2007
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Notes:
1. Brazil: Data are from IBGE, resident population at 1st of July.
2. China: For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include those for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong SAR), Macao Special Administrative Region (Macao SAR) and Taiwan province of China. As at 31st December estimated data on the basis of the annual National Sample Survey on Population Changes.
3. India: Including data for the Indian-held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of which has not yet been determined.
4. Russian Federation: Figures were updated taking into acocunt the results of the 2002 All-Russian population census.
5. South Africa: Mid-year estimates have been adjusted for underenumeration, at latest census.

Evolution of the population

The size and growth of a country's population are both causes and effects of economic and social developments. The natural increase in population (births minus deaths) has slowed in all OECD countries, resulting in a rise in the average age of populations. In several countries, falling rates of natural increase have been partly offset by immigration from outside the OECD area.

Definition

The tables refer to the resident population. For countries such as France, the United Kingdom and the United States which have overseas colonies, protectorates or other territorial possessions, their populations are generally excluded. For full details, see Sources below.

Growth rates are the annual changes in the population and are the result of births, deaths and net migration during the year.

The total fertility rate is the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in that period in agreement with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

Comparability

For most OECD countries, population data are based on regular, ten-yearly censuses, with estimates for intercensal years being derived from administrative data such as population registers, notified births and deaths and migration records. In several European countries, population estimates are based entirely on administrative records. In general, the population data for OECD countries are reliable, although, for some countries, there are breaks in the series as indicated by vertical lines in the tables.

Note that for some countries the population figures shown here are not those used for calculating GDP and other economic statistics on a "per head” basis. There are several reasons for this, but the differences between the two data sets are normally small.

Long-term trends

In 2004, OECD countries accounted for just over 18% of the world’s population of 6.4 billion. China accounted for 20% and India for 17%. Within OECD, the United States accounted for 25% of the OECD total, followed by Japan (11%), Mexico (9%), Germany (7%) and Turkey (6%).

Between 1992 and 2005, the population growth rate for all OECD countries averaged 0.7% per annum. Growth rates much higher than this were recorded for Mexico and Turkey (high birth rate countries) and for Australia, Canada, Luxembourg, Ireland and New Zealand (high net immigration). In the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, populations declined from a combination of low birth rates and net emigration. Growth rates were very low, although still positive, in Germany, Italy and the Slovak Republic.

Total fertility rates have declined dramatically over the past few decades, falling on average from 2.7 in 1970 to 1.6 children per woman of childbearing age in 2004. By 2004, the total fertility rate was below its replacement level of 2.1 in all OECD countries except Mexico and Turkey. In all OECD countries, fertility rates have declined for young women and increased at older ages, because women are postponing the age at which they start their families.

Sources

For member countries: OECD (2006), Labour Force Statistics 1985-2005: 2006 Edition, OECD, Paris.
For Brazil: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica.
For China: National Bureau of Statistics.
For India, Russian Federation, South Africa and the world: UN (2005), Demographic Yearbook 2002, United Nations, New York.
Fertility rates: OECD (2007), Society at a Glance: OECD Social Indicators – 2006 Edition, OECD, Paris.

Further information

Analytical publications

OECD (2006), OECD Employment Outlook, OECD, Paris.

Statistical publications

Maddison, Angus (2003), The World Economy: Historical Perspectives, OECD, Paris, also available on CD-ROM, www.theworldeconomy.org.
OECD (2004), Quarterly Labour Force Statistics, OECD, Paris.

Methodological publications

d’Addio, A. C. and M. Mira d’Ercole (2005), Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies, OECD Social Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 27, OECD, Paris.
OECD (2006), Labour Force Statistics, OECD, Paris.