Methodology: The Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for the Conference Board by TNS. The questionnaires are mailed to a nationwide representative sample of 5,000 households, of which roughly 3,500 typically respond. Each month, a different panel of 5,000 households is surveyed.
The Index is based on responses to five questions included in the survey:
1. Respondents' appraisal of current business conditions.
2. Respondents' expectations regarding business conditions six months hence.
3. Respondents' appraisal of the current employment conditions.
4. Respondents' expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence.
5. Respondents' expectations regarding their total family income six months hence.
For each of the five questions, there are three response options: POSITIVE, NEGATIVE, and NEUTRAL.
The response proportions to each question are seasonally adjusted. For each of the five questions (above), the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the "RELATIVE" value. For each question, the average RELATIVE for the calendar year 1985 is then used as a benchmark to yield the INDEX value for that question. The Indexes are then averaged together as follows: Consumer Confidence Index: Average of all five Indexes; Present Situation Index: Average of Indexes for questions 1 and 3; Expectations Index: Average of Indexes for questions 2, 4, and 5.
