Vinyl to iPods

A textbook example of technology obsolescence.

I think that its really interesting that all three medias prior to mp3 followed roughly the same pattern of growth, and decline.

And I expect mp3 to follow the same trend.

what is "vinyl"?

hehehe

anonymous - vinyl is that old school huge round discs that DJs still use.

huned - you dont think mp3s are here to stay? hard to imagine something beating it out..

if you're talking about digital music, that's probably here to stay, but the mp3 format could be less permanent.

so it'll be cool to get data on the composition of digital music formats.

OGG!!

RE: I think that its really interesting that all three medias prior to mp3 followed roughly the same pattern of growth, and decline.

Not only have they followed the same pattern, but the peak of each successive curve is higher than the last.
Can we expect the height of digital music sales to eclipse the height of CD sales in the late '90s?

Anon, that's a good point. I suspect that each successive technology has greater sales because technology becomes ever cheaper and thus more ubiquitous. I expect this characteristic to continue.

TheMightyBear, see MikeC's comment. Digital music as a medium is already ubiquitous. But we're not necessarily tied to mp3 as a format... What do you buy from iTunes? aac, right?

true, mp3 although dominant now, may not be later. but what i wanted to get at was: i don't think digital music as a medium and its players will be replaced.

It isn't really fair to compare iPod sales to cd album sales because consumers do not buy iPods for the same reason they purchase cds.
Perhaps a more appropriate comparison would be of online-album sales to cd sales, OR of phonograph to walkman (both cd or cassette) to iPod sales.

jacob, right you are. it'd be more useful to have unit-sales from say the itunes music store (as a major provider of digital music). or, if the riaa or something had numbers on digital music sales across all retailers, that'd be optimal... is that available anywhere?

This seems like another manifestation of the 36% rule, I've made a few notes about this: http://adelino.typepad.com/...

about not thinking of anything to beat out mp3 players, thats what people used to think when all they had were phonographs.

Peaks are increasing because they are not normalized to population and might still increase with increased disposable income. Looks like Apple was lucky to sell a bunch of iPods after the decline of CD's started due to sucky artists at the major labels. Part of the peaking is likely due to replacement buying.

I think that Ipods are just other great way to liton and watch your fav. movies I give ipods two thums up I have one

It makes simple sense that the curves (sales trends) get higher with each successive format - the population keeps increasing, so more people shop; it doesn't mean the newer formats are more popular. If the three trends were stacked, the increase would look pretty dramatic, but consistent. Also, relative costs have decreased with improved technology (iPod's are expensive, but not in comparison to a medium quality component stereo system, especially in constant dollars).

In twenty years there will be no physical storage. It will all be one light.
http://whitepapers.silicon....